Every prediction we publish is tracked, scored, and published here -- including the ones we got wrong. Because intelligence without accountability is just opinion.
The predicted shift is independently documented by two or more major sources within the stated time window. We require external evidence -- we don't score our own observations as confirmation.
The time window passes with no meaningful evidence of the predicted shift. We don't extend windows. We don't quietly delete calls. Wrong predictions stay in the ledger permanently.
The prediction is still within its stated time window. 27 of our 36 predictions are currently active in market. These are the live signals we're watching most closely.
The value of a cultural intelligence signal is not in the resolution -- it's in the lead time. We publish predictions at the point when the shift is not yet obvious. By definition, most of the confirming evidence arrives later, often much later.
Our 27 pending predictions are active in market. As they resolve over the next 12-18 months, the confirmed rate will converge. We expect most to land, some to miss, and a handful to prove premature rather than wrong -- which is an important distinction in cultural forecasting.
The seven wrong calls stay in this ledger because they're part of the record. Removing them would be a form of deception. Subscribers and enterprise clients deserve to see the full picture, not a curated highlight reel. That's exactly what separates a live intelligence operation from a retrospective trend report.
| Metric | Count | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Total predictions tracked | 36 | All tracked |
| Confirmed correct | 1 | ✓ Called it |
| Called wrong | 7 | ✗ Missed |
| Still active in market | 27 | ● Pending |
The full prediction ledger -- with individual calls, confidence scores, and basis notes -- appears in every daily edition. Subscribe to track predictions in real time.
Burnout discourse is shifting from personal failing to systemic risk. C-suite emotional literacy is being reframed as competitive advantage -- moving from HR language into the vocabulary of performance and strategy.
This page is updated automatically each time a prediction resolves. The full prediction ledger -- with individual calls, confidence scores, and the basis for every call -- appears in every daily edition.
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