Prediction Track Record

We show our
working.

Every prediction we publish is tracked, scored, and published here -- including the ones we got wrong. Because intelligence without accountability is just opinion.

36
Predictions
in market
1
Confirmed
correct
7
Called
wrong
27
Still
pending
Stats as of Edition 80 – updated each time a prediction resolves
Scoring Method

How we score predictions

Correct

The predicted shift is independently documented by two or more major sources within the stated time window. We require external evidence -- we don't score our own observations as confirmation.

Wrong

The time window passes with no meaningful evidence of the predicted shift. We don't extend windows. We don't quietly delete calls. Wrong predictions stay in the ledger permanently.

Pending

The prediction is still within its stated time window. 27 of our 36 predictions are currently active in market. These are the live signals we're watching most closely.

Each prediction is published with a time window (e.g. "within 6 months"), a basis explaining the reasoning at time of writing, and the signals that led to the call. Nothing is edited after publication.
On Intellectual Honesty
"A 12% confirmed rate at 27 pending is not a problem. It's how early-stage cultural forecasting works."

The value of a cultural intelligence signal is not in the resolution -- it's in the lead time. We publish predictions at the point when the shift is not yet obvious. By definition, most of the confirming evidence arrives later, often much later.

Our 27 pending predictions are active in market. As they resolve over the next 12-18 months, the confirmed rate will converge. We expect most to land, some to miss, and a handful to prove premature rather than wrong -- which is an important distinction in cultural forecasting.

The seven wrong calls stay in this ledger because they're part of the record. Removing them would be a form of deception. Subscribers and enterprise clients deserve to see the full picture, not a curated highlight reel. That's exactly what separates a live intelligence operation from a retrospective trend report.

The Ledger

Summary view

Metric Count Status
Total predictions tracked 36 All tracked
Confirmed correct 1 ✓ Called it
Called wrong 7 ✗ Missed
Still active in market 27 ● Pending

The full prediction ledger -- with individual calls, confidence scores, and basis notes -- appears in every daily edition. Subscribe to track predictions in real time.

Format Reference
Sample from the live edition

What a prediction card looks like

Pending
Behaviour
12 months from Edition 45
Emotional intelligence becomes a boardroom skill
Basis

Burnout discourse is shifting from personal failing to systemic risk. C-suite emotional literacy is being reframed as competitive advantage -- moving from HR language into the vocabulary of performance and strategy.

Updated Automatically

Track predictions in real time

This page is updated automatically each time a prediction resolves. The full prediction ledger -- with individual calls, confidence scores, and the basis for every call -- appears in every daily edition.

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